Europe’s new vehicle market: prospects to 2023

A new Automotive World report looks at the prospects for the light vehicle (LV, <3.5t) and heavy commercial vehicle (HV, >3.5t) sectors in Europe in 2019 and through to 2023. The impacts of an economic slowdown and a number of other complex geopolitical issues feature heavily in this analysis of Europe’s new vehicle market.

‘Europe’s new vehicle market: prospects to 2023’ anticipates minimal growth in the LV sector and a decline in the HV market, but with a return to growth in the final three years of the forecast.

Despite the opportunities offered by the new EU-Japan trade deal, European automotive industry stakeholders are preparing for the impact of slowing economic growth across Europe, uncertainty caused by ongoing Brexit negotiations, the threat of escalating global trade tensions and renewed concern about Italian debt.

“Against this background, it is perhaps a little surprising that the current outlook for vehicle demand is fairly benign,” said Jonathan Storey, author of Automotive World’s European market outlook report, which covers 30 EU and EFTA markets.

Nonetheless, Storey remains optimistic about the market’s overall strength, adding, “Both the light and heavy vehicle sectors are expected to undergo cyclical declines over the next couple of years, but these are the ebbs and flows of mature markets, not a sign of markets in meltdown.”

Europe is the latest market to be covered in the ongoing Automotive World five-year market outlook series.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Chapter 1: Recent light vehicle (LV) demand
  • Chapter 2: Market characteristics
  • Chapter 3: Market and model shares
  • Chapter 4: Economic outlook
  • Chapter 5: LV Outlook
  • Chapter 6: Recent heavy vehicle demand & characteristics of key markets
  • Chapter 7: HV market shares
  • Chapter 8: Outlook for HV demand
  • Appendix (Excel)
    • Historic vehicle sales by OEM group and brand (2014-2018)
    • Vehicle sales forecasts by OEM group and brand (2019-2023)


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